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  Félix Peña

INTERNATIONAL TRADE RELATIONS NEWSLETTER
2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017
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Towards the beginning of a new stage of Mercosur?

por Félix Peña
January 2023


 

This year, the two main Mercosur partners will hold the Presidency of Mercosur: Argentina during the first semester and Brazil during the second one. Consequently, their Presidents will have the opportunity of exerting their influence on the much needed reactivation of a process that formally began almost forty years ago.

More than thirty years since its formal creation in 1991, Mercosur now requires a decisive political and economic boost in order to adapt it to the new global and regional international realities, including those of the founding countries.

The presidential terms to be served by Argentina and later by Brazil, working together with Paraguay and Uruguay, provide an opportunity to translate the much needed political drive into concrete decisions and actions to revitalize the common project through the joint work of the four partners and to increase its credibility and effectiveness. Such initiative, undertaken within the framework of a joint agenda for Mercosur's international insertion, could also contribute to accentuate the international presence of its member countries.

Mercosur will also need to promote initiatives aimed at achieving and, above all, taking advantage of the final outcome of the postponed negotiations for association with the European Union.


Since its formal inception in 1986, at the meeting between Presidents Raúl Alfonsín of Argentina and José Sarney of Brazil, the South American integration process known as the Southern Common Market (Mercosur) has had the active participation of South America's two largest economies, Brazil and Argentina.

This year, the two countries will hold the Presidency of Mercosur: Argentina in the first semester and Brazil in the second. Their Presidents will then have an opportunity to influence the much-needed renewal of the process that formally began almost forty years ago.

Over thirty years since its formal creation in 1991, Mercosur today requires a decisive political and economic boost in order to adapt it to the new global and regional international realities, including those of its own founding members.

The presidential terms to be served by Argentina and then Brazil, working together with Paraguay and Uruguay, provide an opportunity to translate the necessary political momentum into concrete decisions and actions to revitalize the common project with the joint work of the four current partners and to increase its credibility and effectiveness. Such an impulse, within the framework of a joint agenda for Mercosur's international insertion, could also contribute to strengthening the international presence of the member countries.

Three factors make the joint effort between the two countries advisable and possible in the exercise of their respective Mercosur presidential terms. They imply recognizing that both countries have a strong responsibility and a leading role in promoting the adaptation of the common project to the new global and regional realities.

The first factor is that, as it currently stands, the original Mercosur project has gradually lost a significant part of its credibility and effectiveness. The second factor is that any attempt to update it will require the concerted efforts (both political and economic) of all member countries, including, of course, the two main economies of the area. The third factor is that President Lula da Silva, who in his previous terms had a key role in promoting a greater degree of regional integration, has demonstrated over the years his appreciation of the idea of joint work, not only among Mercosur members but also with the other South American countries, all within the broader and more complex Latin American regional scope.

The goal of renewing Mercosur would not only require modifying the substance of its legal instruments and institutional mechanisms. It will also call for a good dose of imagination and technical capacity to achieve an effective concerted effort among the member countries, in order to adapt the rules and methods of working together to the new regional and global realities. It is not, therefore, an easy task, nor does it necessarily have a guaranteed outcome.

Among others, three fronts of joint work between the partners will demand special attention. Each of these will require not only technical and political capacity but, above all, the ability to put into practice the vocation of joint work between nations that have both common and diverging interests.

A first front is the necessary capacity to have a good diagnosis on the reforms that are required in the working methods used by Mercosur in order to make decisions that can be effective (that penetrate reality) and efficient (that produce the desired effects).

A second front is related to the procedures that would allow a reasonable balance between the goal of having flexible rules and the need to obtain a sufficient level of legal security in the joint work between the partners.

The third front is that of the actions that may be necessary to provide the Mercosur Secretariat with a degree of organization that allows it to fulfill the function of technical preparation of decisions that reflect a real coordination of efforts among the partners. Perhaps this last front is the one that should have a priority on Mercosur's work agenda for 2023, the period in which the presidency will be held first by Argentina and then by Brazil.

In the coming year, however, Mercosur will also need to promote initiatives aimed at materializing and, above all, taking full advantage of the outcome of the delayed negotiations for the association agreement with the European Union. Without prejudice to the issues that explain the delays incurred in the last three years, it will be necessary that those issues related to climate change acquire a strong presence in the bi-regional agenda. In addition, the link between the current bi-regional agenda and the agenda that Mercosur and the EU develop with other countries of South America should also be intensified.

A special priority for Mercosur should be its still fledgling agenda of preferential trade relations with the countries of Asia and Africa, two other regions of growing relative importance in international trade. We will address this topic in a later article.


Lecturas recomendadas:


  • Armstrong, Shiro, "The promise of comprehensive regional security in East Asia", East Asian Forum, 4 dic 2022, en www.eastasiaforum.org.
  • Brun, Élodie (coordinadora), "Cooperación Sur-Sur para el desarrollo: experiencias latinoamericanas y caribeñas" El Colegio de México-Centro de Estudios Internacionales, Ciudad de México 2021.
  • Busztin, Gyorgy, "More than meets the eye in Gulf-Indonesia ties", East Asian Forum, 28 dic. 2022, en http://www.eastasiaforum.org.
  • Carmody, Patricio, "Volver a conectarse con Brasil", sección Opinión, diario "La Nación", 5 de diciembre 2022, página 27.
  • De Marco (h), Miguel Ángel, "Hidrovía. Plataforma competitiva para el desarrollo. Del siglo XIX al XXI", Universidad de Luján - IDEHESI-CONICET- Facultad de Ingeniería-Universidad de Buenos Aires, Noviembre 2022.
  • Elizondo, Marcelo. "Los siete males del Mercosur: la pelea de fondo que genera cortocircuitos en el bloque", Suplemento Comercio Exterior, diario "La Nación", 8 de diciembre 2022, página 3.
  • Evans, Paul, "Canada's new Indo-Pacific strategy bids au revoir to middle power ambitions", East Asian Forum, 19 dic 2022, en http://www.eastasiaforum.org.
  • Golovin, Stepan, "Hidden progress of ASEAN economic integration under Cambodia's chairmanship", East Asian Forum, 28 dic. 2022, en www.eastasiaforum.org.
  • Hirst, Mónica; Tokatlian, Juan, "La vuelta de Lula y la política exterior brasileña", Nueva Sociedad, sección opinión, diciembre 2022, en https://nuso.org/articulo/Lula-politica-exterior-brasil/.
  • Kaplinsky, Raphael, "Sustainable Futures. An Agenda for Action", Polity Press, Cambridge-Medford, 2021.
  • MacDonald, Scott B., "The New Cold War, China, and the Caribbean. Economic Statecraft, China and Strategic Realignments", Palgrave, Macmillan, 2022.
  • MacDonald. Scott B., "A New Age for South America's Lithium Triangle?, Global Americans, December 22, 2022 l(www.theglobalamericans.org).
  • Mely Caballero, Anthony, "Securitising climate policy will keep the Indo-Pacific afloat", East Asian Forum, 26 dic 2022, en www.eastasiaforum.org.
    .

Félix Peña es Director del Instituto de Comercio Internacional de la Fundación ICBC; Director de la Maestría en Relaciones Comerciales Internacionales de la Universidad Nacional de Tres de Febrero (UNTREF); Miembro del Comité Ejecutivo del Consejo Argentino para las Relaciones Internacionales (CARI). Miembro del Brains Trust del Evian Group. Ampliar trayectoria.

http://www.felixpena.com.ar | info@felixpena.com.ar


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